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    2016 Oscar Predictions

    GaryKramerbyRyanBrandenbergThe Oscars are to be awarded on February 28. And while it might have been anyone’s race leading up to the nominations, there are some clear winners in the major categories now that the ceremony is only a few weeks away.

    Best Picture

    Nominees: The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight

    It’s disappointing that Carol wasn’t among the nominees this year, as it is better than most of the films that were nominated. It seems that The Revenant is the clear favorite this year, given the intense production and its success on the awards circuit so far. But there seems to be a consensus building that Spotlight might steal the spotlight.

    Best Director

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    Nominees: Lenny Abrahamson, Room; Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, The Revenant; Tom McCarthy, Spotlight; Adam McKay, The Big Short; George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

    Again, it’s disappointing that out filmmaker Todd Haynes was snubbed for Carol. With his winning the Director›s Guild of American Award, it seems likely that Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu will win consecutive directing trophies after last year’s victory for Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance). However, prognosticators are pointing towards George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road to take home the gold.

    Best Actress

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    Nominees: Cate Blanchett, Carol; Brie Larson, Room; Jennifer Lawrence, Joy; Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years; Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

    If there was any justice to the Oscars, Charlotte Rampling would win for her astonishing performance in gay filmmaker Andrew Haigh’s 45 Years. Even if Cate Blanchett picked up her third Oscar for her phenomenal turn in Carol, this would be a good thing. Saoirse Ronan is the possible (and justly deserving) spoiler in the category for Brooklyn, but Brie Larson seems to be a lock in this category for her work in Room.

    Best Actor

    Nominees: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo; Matt Damon, The Martian; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant; Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs; Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl.

    Redmayne, who won last year (for The Theory of Everything) may have delivered a flawless performance as the transgender pioneer Lili Elbe, but this year, six-time nominee Leonardo DiCaprio is the favorite to win for his incredible turn in The Revenant.

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    Best Supporting Actress

    Nominees: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight; Rooney Mara, Carol; Rachel McAdams, Spotlight; Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl; Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

    Both Vikander and Mara were pushed into the supporting actress category by their studios that felt the performers would have a better chance at winning as a result. However, as a result of that campaigning, the actresses were neck and neck to win. It appears that Vikander, who also turned in a memorable role in Ex Machina this year, has the edge. Her performance in The Danish Girl was the highlight of the film and certainly is worthy of an award, as is Mara’s spectacular turn in Carol.

    Best Supporting Actor

    Nominees: Christian Bale, The Big Short; Tom Hardy, The Revenant; Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight; Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies; Sylvester Stallone, Creed.

    Given that Rocky won Best Picture 40 years ago, it seems inevitable that Stallone will win this prize for purely sentimental reasons. Mark Rylance could steal Rocky’s thunder for his magnificent work in Bridge of Spies, but Stallone looks like he’ll win a TKO.

    Best Animated Feature

    Nominees: Anomalisa; Boy & the World; Inside Out; Shaun the Sheep Movie; When Marnie Was There

    Anomalisa and Shaun the Sheep Movie are worthwhile films, but they don’t have a chance against Inside Out, which was embraced by all audiences upon release. Inside Out has the inside track in this category.

    Best Cinematography

    Nominees: Carol; The Hateful Eight; Mad Max: Fury Road; Sicario; The Revenant

    Carol had outstanding cinematography, and The Hateful Eight was shown in 70mm to show off its incredible look. Even Mad Max: Fury Road featured a distinctive visual palette. But the atmospheric lensing of The Revenant will get the award this year, and cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki his third consecutive Oscar (after Birdman and Gravity).

    Best Documentary

    Nominees: Amy; The Look of Silence; Cartel Land; Winter on Fire; What Happened Miss Simone?

    It would be nice if out filmmaker Joshua Oppenheimer would emerge as the winner for his devastating film, The Look of Silence, but the frontrunner in this category is Amy, the remarkable documentary on the late Amy Winehouse. Alas, Best of Enemies, the great Gore Vidal/William F. Buckley, Jr. debate doc, didn’t even make the cut.

    Best Editing

    Nominees: The Big Short; Mad Max: Fury Road; The Revenant; Spotlight; Star Wars: The Force Awakens

    It’s looking like Mad Max: Fury Road will win this category, which makes sense because the film’s editing is simply breathtaking.

    Best Foreign Language Film

    Nominees: Embrace of the Serpent (Columbia); A War (Denmark); Mustang (France); Son of Saul (Hungary); Theeb (Jordan)

    Viva, the Irish film about a gay Cuban drag queen, was snubbed in this category, which has long belonged to Son of Saul, a film that has received rapturous accolades since it premiered on the festival circuit, and is the expected victor.

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Nominees: The Big Short; Brooklyn; Carol; Room; The Martian

    Brooklyn, adapted from the novel by gay author Colm Toibin, and Carol, adapted from Patricia Highsmith’s lesbian classic, are smart choices. But the smart money is on The Big Short, the darkly comic film about the finance bubble bursting.

    Best Original Screenplay

    Nominees: Bridge of Spies; Ex Machina; Inside Out; Spotlight; Straight Outta Compton

    The Original Screenplay award usually feels like a booby prize, but this year, Spotlight looks likely to win. It’s an engrossing drama about investigative journalism. It boasts a fantastic ensemble cast.

    Best Live Action Short Film

    Nominees: Ave Maria; Shok; Everything Will Be OK; Stutterer; Day One

    Ave Maria is the odds-on favorite. It is an amusing comedy about the cultural and religious clashes that arise at a Palestine convent when an Israeli crashes into a statue of the Virgin Mary. If the Academy voted with its heart, not its funny bone, Stutterer, a poignant, charming romance, or Everything Will Be Ok, an intense, emotional drama about a father and his daughter, would take home the gold.

    Best Animated Short Film

    Nominees: Sanjay’s Super Team; World of Tomorrow; Bear Story; We Can’t Live Without Cosmos; Prologue

    Pixar is the studio behind Sanjay’s Super Team, which is largely why this “mostly true” story about the bond between young superhero-loving Hindu boy and his traditional, religious father will win this category, though We Can’t Live Without Cosmos is really superb.

    Best Documentary Short Subject

    Nominees: Body Team 12; Chau, Beyond the Lines; Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah; A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness; Last Day of Freedom

    The topics are all serious. They include Chau, a disabled Vietnamese teen who dreams of designing fashion; a story of honor killing in Pakistan; an animated doc about a man whose brother who suffers from PTSD has committed a crime; and a profile of the director of Shoah. But Body Team 12, about a woman in Liberia assisting with Ebola victims, is expected to win this category. This urgent, harrowing, and fascinating short documentary about a courageous woman deserves the recognition.

    © 2016 Gary M. Kramer

    Gary M. Kramer is the author of “Independent Queer Cinema: Reviews and Interviews,” and the co-editor of “Directory of World Cinema: Argentina.” Follow him on Twitter @garymkramer