By Louise “Lou” Fischer–
Over 80 million people will exhale in sheer relief and leap in paroxysms of glee when the current Commander Cheeto-in-Chief exits the White House for the last time in January, but boy howdy, it sure didn’t come cheaply. CNN labeled the amount spent on the 2020 federal election an “absolutely stunning price tag.” According to the Center for Responsive Politics (a research group that tracks money in politics), almost $14 billion was spent; the breakdown was approximately $6.6 billion on the presidential campaign and an estimated $7.2 billion on Congressional races. In comparison, that is more than double the cost of the 2016 election cycle, which was $6.5 billion total for presidential and Congressional races (adjusted for inflation).
With the most important Election Day in our lives mercifully behind us, there is nothing for local campaign junkies to do. However, for electoral data junkies, this is “Festivus” but with number crunching instead of an “unadorned pole” or “feats of strength.” Armed with a fresh spreadsheet and data from the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) and the Fair Political Practice Commission (FPPC), a political nerd could spend hours of pandemic-induced isolation poring over numbers. I wrote about this topic two years ago for the 2018 election, when I deemed the theme song to be “Money, Money, Money” by ABBA. This year, a more appropriate song, at least for the presidential election, is Warren Zevon’s 1978 hit “Lawyers, Guns and Money.”
There is a wide discrepancy in the amount of money raised (and spent) in federal versus local elections, and the figures vary greatly depending on the race. Aggregate numbers without a reference point seem meaningless, which is why, after every election, I like to calculate “per-vote-spending”—the amount spent divided by number of votes received—which answers the question, “How much did every vote cost?”
In 2020, not only did the pandemic significantly disrupt daily life, but it also completely obliterated electoral campaigning. San Francisco’s traditional strategy, which is heavy on door-to-door canvassing, hand-shaking, baby-kissing and in-person events, was out of the question. Campaign managers had to pivot to different forms of outreach such as TV/internet advertising, social media, direct mail, phone/text-banking and the dreaded Zoom gatherings that were brutal for “day-job” workers like me. The last thing I wanted to do after a whole day of working over video conference was to do more video conferencing.
San Francisco’s 11 supervisorial districts each represent a smaller electorate, and when races are open or contested, the cost per vote (CPV) tends to run high. In the 2020 election, of the 6 “odd” districts, D1 and D7 were completely open, D5 and D11 had serious challenges to incumbents, D3 had a challenger (to Aaron Peskin) that did surprisingly well against a 3-termer, and D9 was so uncontested that the incumbent seems not to have even bothered to raise or spend any funds.
The calculations below represent total expenditures by the campaign (not including “Independent Expenditure” or 3rd party spending) divided by the total of 1st choice votes, because even though supervisor races are ranked choice (RCV), 2nd and 3rd choices are consolation prizes. It’s like watching the opening band for The Beatles; they were OK, but you came to Shea Stadium to see The Beatles, not The Young Rascals. The results below are from the candidates’ October 30 Form 460 financial filings (available at https://sfethics.org/ ) and supplements where applicable.
Results of District 1 (Inner/Central/Outer Richmond)
| Candidate | Amount Spent | Total 1st choice votes | Cost per vote (CPV) |
| CONNIE CHAN | $287,353 | 13,420 | $21.41 |
| MARJAN PHILHOUR | $410,769 | 12,196 | $33.68 |
This was a tough one. Marjan did spend more than Connie, but she engaged in as much in-person outreach as was possible during a pandemic. This race still bewilders me; I guess D1 is still a progressive bastion. While Connie had a lower CPV than Marjan, this race had some nastiness from an IE supporting Connie that may have pushed Connie over the edge by a mere 124 votes at the end of RCV.
Results of top 2 finishers in District 3 (Chinatown, North Beach, Telegraph Hill, Nob Hill)
| Candidate | Amount Spent | Total 1st choice votes | Cost per vote (CPV) |
| AARON PESKIN | $308,262 | 15,290 | $20.16 |
| DANNY SAUTER | $298,914 | 10,449 | $28.61 |
Peskin should not have had to spend so much against a political newcomer with no name recognition who was referred to as “Danny Who?” Clearly Danny got in the game, and while he did spend more per vote than a THIRD TERM SUPERVISOR, it’s the norm for a challenger. Still, Danny kept his CPV low, so maybe in 4 years he can try again.
Results of District 5 (Inner Sunset, Haight Ashbury, Lower Haight, Fillmore, Western Addition, Japantown, Hayes Valley, and more)
| Candidate | Amount Spent | Total 1st choice votes | Cost per vote (CPV) |
| DEAN PRESTON | $478,534 | 21,427 | $22.33 |
| VALLIE BROWN | $420,999 | 16,727 | $25.17 |
This race was disappointing; I wrote about it extensively in two earlier columns, so you can read about it there. Vallie spent a little more per vote than Dean as expected, but overall, the CPV was pretty modest and in the same range as the other districts except for D7.
Results of District 7 (St. Francis Wood, Monterey Heights, Mt. Davidson, Balboa Terrace, Ingleside Terrace, West Portal, and a total of 26 neighborhoods, most of which you have never heard of)
| Candidate | Amount Spent | Total 1st choice votes | Cost per vote (CPV) |
| JOEL ENGARDIO | $428,206 | 9,215 | $46.47 |
| VILASKA NGUYEN | $422,085 | 8,195 | $51.51 |
| MYRNA MELGAR | $439,060 | 7,852 | $55.92 |
Chalk this one up to another crazy district election in the wacky madcap world of SF politics. It was an open and highly contested race, and as expected, CPV numbers were higher than the other five districts, but not as high as the D2 race in 2018 where the CPV of the challenger was a whopping $91. While both Joel and Vilaska received more 1st choice votes than Myrna, through the miracle of RCV and shared ideologies, Myrna scooped up enough of the challengers’ votes to win. I think Joel said it best after the election with this quote to the press: “An open seat with multiple candidates and the dynamic of ranked choice voting makes things complicated.”
Results of District 9 (Mission, Bernal Heights, Portola)
| Candidate | Amount Spent | Total votes | Cost per vote (CPV) |
| HILLARY RONEN | Who knows? | 27,478 | unknown |
I’m perplexed by this, but I can’t find any filings for her 2020 supervisor campaign, and if I wasn’t already past deadline, I would call Supervisor Ronen and ask. Either the name of the candidate’s committee is something really obscure or Hillary opted to spend less than $1000 on this race and therefore didn’t have to file. I live in District 9 and I don’t remember receiving any literature, but she was unopposed, so even if she joined an underground biosphere community before the election, she’d still be the winner.
Results of District 11 (Excelsior, Ingleside, Oceanview, Outer Mission, Crocker Amazon, and others)
| Candidate | Amount Spent | Total votes | Cost per vote (CPV) |
| AHSHA SAFAI | $319.093 | 15,032 | $21.23 |
| JOHN AVALOS | $355,423 | 13,334 | $26.66 |
This race followed the traditional pattern: the incumbent kept his CPV lower than the challenger, a former 2-term Supervisor who tried to pull an “Aaron Peskin” and come back to the Board (or a “Grover Cleveland” if you are a presidential history buff). Peskin won easily in 2016 because his opponent was an appointed incumbent who was barely in office long enough to find the women’s restroom before she had to run against a former two-term elected official. Ahsha is a popular incumbent who was elected in his own right, so this race had a higher degree of difficulty.
Overall, the CPVs for the “class of 2020” weren’t particularly Earth-shattering and returned consistent and expected results. So, now that you know how much you have to spend to run for elected office, start saving now!
By the Numbers
SF votes cast on Election Day – 38,452
SF vote-by-mail ballots – 411,373
Total votes submitted – 449,825
Registered voters – 521,099
Voter turnout – 86.32%
Louise (Lou) Fischer is a Former Co-chair of the Board of Directors of the Alice B. Toklas LGBT Democratic Club and has served as an appointed and elected Delegate for the State Democratic Party. She is a proud graduate of the Emerge California Women’s Democratic Leadership program, was a San Francisco Commissioner, and has served in leadership positions in multiple nonprofit and community-based organizations.
Published December 3, 2020
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