By Zoe Dunning—
“Patel Suggests F.B.I. Agents May Be Sent to the Polls” (September 15, 2026)
“Trump’s Effort to Assert Control Over Elections Continues, Despite Court Loss” (September 14, 2026)
“Denver Sues to Block Armed ICE Agents at Voting Sites” (September 10, 2026)
Recent New York Times headlines highlight the current administration’s actions to sow doubt about the integrity of our election process and to cause mayhem for voters. The closer we get to Election Day on November 3, the more desperate the Republican Party’s efforts are to maintain control of Congress in the upcoming midterm election.
And they should be scared. On Nate Silver’s Silver Bullet website, his Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and (Expert) Ratings (FLIPR) predicts a 60.1% probability of Democratic control of the Senate and an 87.9% probability of Democratic control of the House in the next Congress (deluxe forecasting model as of September 16, 2026).
We all know that polls and forecast models can be wildly unreliable, as in last month’s Wisconsin gubernatorial primary. David Crowley, down 18 points in the polls, surprised everyone by winning the Democratic Party nomination. So, let’s not treat these projections as an invitation to relax; anything can happen. Yet the opportunity is ripe to stem the tide of anti-LGBTQ and anti-immigrant policies and actions coming out of Washington.
Losing seats, or even control of the House or Senate, in a midterm election is historically common. In 20 of the 22 midterms since 1938, the president’s party lost House seats. In the midterms of 1994, 2010, 2018, and 2022, when the president had unified government (control of the White House, House, and Senate), the majority party lost control of the House (in 1994, Clinton and the Democrats also lost control of the Senate).
Why does this happen? First, those swept into office on presidential coattails two years earlier suddenly become vulnerable when no presidential candidate is on the ballot. That’s why President Trump is asking his supporters to “pretend I’m on the ballot.”
Second, there’s differential turnout. Marginal voters who turn out for presidential elections don’t reliably show up for midterm elections. That’s why Trump is offering $5,000 to every American adult if the Republicans maintain control of the House and Senate (at an expected cost of over $1.2 trillion!).
Finally, there is the referendum effect. Those dissatisfied with the current president are more motivated to show up and vote than those happy with the status quo. With President Trump’s disapproval ratings hovering around 59%, there are many dissatisfied Americans.
Don’t despair at the headlines. We can still take steps to protect election integrity and fight back. Even though the Bay Area is a solidly Democratic region with strong voter protection laws, we can still influence outcomes across the country this November.
Opportunities to help remotely:
Organizations such as Swing Left (https://swingleft.org/) and Indivisible’s 2026 program
(https://2026.indivisible.org/) direct volunteer time and money to strategically important swing districts. They offer canvassing, remote calls, fundraising, election-protection work, and local volunteer groups.
Ground Control (https://wearegroundcontrol.org/) currently aggregates election-protection volunteer opportunities like voter access and poll monitoring.
Many local venues and groups, such as The Academy SF and Democratic clubs, host postcard-writing parties for swing districts. A quick internet search can help you find specific dates and times to volunteer.
Opportunities to help locally: Sign up to be a poll worker. You can find resources and links at Protect Democracy’s Power the Polls: https://www.powerthepolls.org/
Opportunities to travel: One of my fondest memories is going door-to-door in Nevada to encourage voter turnout for the 2016 election. I met other volunteers during that time who have become great friends. It was a lot of fun!
You can travel to states with competitive Senate races (such as Ohio, Michigan, and Texas) to volunteer. You can also help with two competitive races right here in California (one in the Bay Area!): CA-14 in the East Bay (Hayward, Pleasanton, and Dublin) and CA-22 in the San Joaquin Valley (Bakersfield and Hanford).
It starts with you. The easiest and most important thing you can do is vote. Go online to the CA Secretary of State (https://voterstatus.sos.ca.gov/) to confirm you are registered. Federal and state officials have been reviewing and modifying voter registration rolls across the country. Even a simple local address change can result in removal. Every week, news reports tell of voters across the country discovering they are suddenly no longer registered.
If you vote by mail, vote early so you can track your ballot and ensure it gets counted. You can check your ballot’s status with your local county elections official (you can find their contact info at https://bit.ly/476GrOu).
Finally, Protect Democracy (based locally in Berkeley) has a “How you can protect democracy” playbook with 99 actions you can take (https://protectdemocracy.org/). I encourage you to look there for additional ideas.
If you know of other organizations and individuals doing great work for our community, please let me know at zoe@zoedunning.com
Zoe Dunning is a retired U.S. Navy Commander, a leader in the repeal of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, and the former 1st Vice Chair of the San Francisco Democratic County Central Committee. She lives in Oakland with her rescue dog, Bobo, and is writing her memoir, “Incompatible” (working title).
Do Ask, Do Tell
Published on September 24, 2026
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