By Andrea Shorter–
Are you ready for some Primary Election? Good, because next Tuesday, March 3, is the California Democratic Primary Election. As now one of 14 states holding primary elections on March 3, California has voters who are not likely to telegraph any Super Tuesday surprises in the majority interest to dump Trump.
After all, there is virtually no love lost between Californians and Colt 45. As the most populace and diverse near nation-state, we’re just not that into him. However, if there is a surprise, it will be which of the surviving 8 Democratic presidential candidates from former throngs of 20+ contenders will take the Golden State’s brass ring.
With Senator Bernie Sanders winning the Nevada Democratic caucuses and holding a narrowing lead in recent polls for first place over former Vice President and former frontrunner Joseph Biden, we could be in for something of a surprise. As it stands now, according to a poll released by Monmouth University, likely California Democratic primary voters are propping up Sanders with 24%, with Biden second at 17%.
That’s quite a gap, but not nearly as wide as has been reported in other polls at nearly 18 points. Will Biden be the new comeback kid? Or, will California be the bluest and largest electorate to deliver some sweet Valencia orange primary juice to a non-Democrat democratic socialist?
If so, and Sanders remains the odds-on favorite to eventually win the Democratic Party nomination, is it possible that an avowed socialist from Vermont can defeat an avowed authoritarian, unabashed cheater, and forever impeached president hell-bent on doing anything he wants or can to reach a second-term rule?
Have American voters really swung so far to the left of the left for some dreamy down with the rich, anti-capitalist socialist-Bolshevik revolutionary upheaval of all governing systems in the name of income and justice equality for poor people, people of color, and women? Is rejecting the ardent now or never democratic socialist route to freedom a stance for the status quo? If you’re under 45 years old, the socialist siren song is strong. If you’re over 45, and consistently vote, not so much.
California is over 2,501 miles away from South Carolina, both literally as well as figuratively when considering political makeup. Furthermore, South Carolina is absolutely not Denmark. (Sanders, when asked whether Americans would support a socialist, has mentioned accomplishments in Denmark. This Nordic country has an extensive social support system.)
For all of the punditry, analysis, polling, and just plain marvel regarding the not-so-new power of the African American and emerging Latinx voter blocks speculated to determine the ultimate primary winner—and those blocks hanging in there, but slightly waning affection, for Biden—South Carolina’s Democratic Presidential Primary on Saturday, February 29, will likely be a sobering, come to Jesus moment.
The once and perhaps future moderate forebearer Biden is still maintaining a cozy, but dropping, lead in South Carolina, with Sanders closing in for a second place or surge to first place finish. My guess is that Biden is likely come out on top. 55+ aged Black voters just aren’t that into socialism. They are much less into Trump, and are less likely to gamble on socialist radicalism to get rid of him.
Then again, maybe that will be the price to pay. Still, I think the Sanders crowd will be in for a come to Jesus awakening in South Carolina. Of course, the rudest awakening of all could be a Bloomberg upset in South Carolina. He is peeling away Black support from Biden at a pretty decent clip. Well, at least before a less than encouraging pre-Democratic Primary Debate in Nevada. Ouch. It was certainly not a paid TV commercial ad-worthy debate debut performance.
It’s a cliffhanger for sure; more than a bit of a nail biter. Just the fate of the republic on the line. No small matter. We know that whoever wins the most Super Tuesday primaries is the likely nominee whom we must ensure wins back the White House. Democratic socialist or not, right?
Andrea Shorter is a Commissioner and the former President of the historic San Francisco Commission on the Status of Women. She is a longtime advocate for criminal and juvenile justice reform, voter rights and marriage equality. A Co-Founder of the Bayard Rustin LGBT Coalition, she was a 2009 David Bohnett LGBT Leadership Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
Published on February 27, 2020
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